In 2001, Rama Cont introduced a now-widely used set of ‘stylized facts’ to synthesize empirical studies of financial time series, resulting in 11 qualitative properties presumed to be universal to all financial markets. Here, we replicate Cont’s analyses for a convenience sample of stocks drawn from the U.S. stock market following a fundamental shift in market regulation. Our study relies on the same authoritative data as that used by the U.S. regulator. We find conclusive evidence in the modern market for eight of Cont’s original facts, while we find weak support for one additional fact and no support for the remaining two. Our study represents the first test of the original set of 11 stylized facts against a consistent set of stocks, therefore providing insight into how Cont’s stylized facts should be viewed in the context of modern stock markets.

• IEEE Xplore

We present our Agent-Based Market Microstructure Simulation (ABMMS), an Agent-Based Financial Market (ABFM) that captures much of the complexity present in the US National Market System for equities (NMS). Agent-Based models are a natural choice for understanding financial markets. Financial markets feature a constrained action space that should simplify model creation, produce a wealth of data that should aid model validation, and a successful ABFM could strongly impact system design and policy development processes. Despite these advantages, ABFMs have largely remained an academic novelty. We hypothesize that two factors limit the usefulness of ABFMs. First, many ABFMs fail to capture relevant microstructure mechanisms, leading to differences in the mechanics of trading. Second, the simple agents that commonly populate ABFMs do not display the breadth of behaviors observed in human traders or the trading systems that they create. We investigate these issues through the development of ABMMS, which features a fragmented market structure, communication infrastructure with propagation delays, realistic auction mechanisms, and more. As a baseline, we populate ABMMS with simple trading agents and investigate properties of the generated data. We then compare the baseline with experimental conditions that explore the impacts of market topology or meta-reinforcement learning agents. The combination of detailed market mechanisms and adaptive agents leads to models whose generated data more accurately reproduce stylized facts observed in actual markets. These improvements increase the utility of ABFMs as tools to inform design and policy decisions.

• arXiv

The U.S. stock market is one of the largest and most complex marketplaces in the global financial system. Over the past several decades, this market has evolved at multiple structural and temporal scales. New exchanges became active, and others stopped trading, regulations have been introduced and adapted, and technological innovations have pushed the pace of trading activity to blistering speeds. These developments have supported the growth of a rich machine-trading ecology that leads to qualitative differences in trading behavior at human and machine time scales. We conduct a longitudinal analysis of comprehensive market data to quantify nonstationary dynamics throughout this system. We quantify the relationship between fluctuations in the number of active trading venues and realized opportunity costs experienced by market participants. We find that information asymmetries, in the form of quote dislocations, predict market-wide volatility indicators. Lastly, we uncover multiple micro-to-macro level pathways, including those exhibiting evidence of self-organized criticality.

• Wiley Online Library: Complexity

Using the most comprehensive source of commercially available data on the US National Market System, we analyze all quotes and trades associated with Dow 30 stocks in 2016 from the vantage point of a single and fixed frame of reference. Contrary to prevailing academic and popular opinion, we find that inefficiencies created in part by the fragmentation of the equity market place are widespread and potentially generate substantial profit for agents with superior market access. Information feeds reported different prices for the same equity, violating the commonly-supposed economic behavior of a unified price for an indistinguishable product more than 120 million times, with “actionable” dislocation segments totaling almost 64 million. During this period, roughly 22% of all trades occurred while the SIP and aggregated direct feeds were dislocated. The current market configuration resulted in a realized opportunity cost totaling over $160 million when compared with a single feed, single exchange alternative a conservative estimate that does not take into account intra-day offsetting events.

• arXiv